Happy Thanksgiving! I hope that everyone's Thanksgiving is full of food, family, and football. We have some pretty interesting games to watch on Thanksgiving day this year starting with Vikings at the Lions. My prediction is that Lions somehow manufacture just enough offense to beat the Vikings defense, Lions 24 Vikings 20. Next up is the Chargers at the Cowboys. My prediction is that they will get Tyron Smith back for this game and be able to protect Dak against a very good Chargers front. I am going with the Cowboys, Cowboys 27 Chargers 17. Lastly, we have the New York Giants at the Washington Redskins. My bet is that the Redskins offense will continue to roll and the Giants secondary stands no chance. Give me the Redskins, Redskins 31 Giants 10.
Last week went about as expected, where Trevor and Willis were the only teams projected to lose that won. Which happened to be the only games that I got wrong last week. I swear that I do not just go through and pick the favored team. In addition, last week happened to be the highest average we have had this season with 92.32 points. That is much better than the 86.52 average for the season.
But we only have two weeks to go until half of us are trying to take each others money and the other half are just trying to regain some pride. Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving.
So last week was a week full of bitterness. Both Basil and Ross got the shit end of the stick when it came to opponents. Basil would have beaten 9 other teams and Ross would have beaten 8 other teams. Basil's loss especially hurts because it knocks him out the the playoffs currently. Yet that really doesn't mean anything until it actually happens, just like how the College Football Playoff standings don't mean anything until all is settled. I mean Clemson and Miami will play each other in the ACC championship, so one of them will get knocked out right? Or if Auburn wins the SEC, will they really keep out a one loss Bama team? I mean they put Ohio State in the playoff over Penn State last year, which I am sure makes Basil even that much more bitter. Alright, I have gotten off track so let's get back to fake football.
So as you have probably guessed by now, the fun facts of this week is going to be the most bitter losses in our leagues history and the luckiest wins in our leagues history. First let's set up some ground rules for what qualifies as the most bitter and the most lucky. The most bitter, in my opinion, is when you lose that week but if you had played any other opponent then you would have won. The most lucky, in my opinion, is the exact opposite. You won your week but if you have played any other team then you would have lost. Fair?
As you can see that a lot of them are in weeks 14 and 16 of the playoffs. This is due to the fact there are 4 teams on bye weeks, so it is more likely that the two worst teams would play each other or the two best teams would play each other.
This is a really big matchup to determine who might win the Jack Daniels division. So far Willis and I are tied at 6-5 but he has the advantage because he beat me at the start of the season. If Willis wins this then he is guaranteed the division and a playoff spot but if I win then I still have a hope of claiming the division title. That is huge considering the fact that you have to win your division to get one of the top two seeds. In the past, Willis has dominated me. I have not beaten Willis since I beat him for the 2011 championship. That means that Willis currently holds a 5 game winning streak over me. This is going to be a tight one because I believe that Julio and Kareem are due for big performances. In addition, Brady and Cooks have gotten their rhythm together, where Cooks has at least 8 targets and 5 catches in each of his last 3 games. I am definitely going to need another big week from my RBs if I am going to stand a chance against Willis.
For some reason, I don't feel confident in my team going into this week. Maybe it is the fact that Willis has beaten me so many times, 7 out of 8 to be exact, or that the Gators and Jags have continued to humble me year after year where I constantly expect the worst. Who knows, I think Willis takes the win and extends both his playoff streak and winning streak over me.
Ean needs a win to still have a chance at winning his division. Whereas, Majors has already clinched a playoff spot, the only question that remains is whether or not he will win his division. Shockingly, these two have only played each other 4 times, with Majors winning the last meeting. In fact, they did not play each other at all in 2012, 2013, or 2016. Ean has not beaten Majors since week 16 of the 2011 season but there has only been two games since then. Ean will be thanking his lucky stars that Nathan Peterman was so horrendous in his NFL debut that they have to start Tyrod. But why are you rostering 4 QBs? You really think Blake Bortles is valuable enough this year to have on your bench? Other than that though, your team has looked solid this year but you will need a lot of help from Carlos Hyde, Doug Baldwin, and L-Fitz if you want to have a chance against Majors this week.
I am going to take Majors in this game. Sorry Ean, but that most likely means that you won't make the playoffs. It's just hard for me to bet against Majors, even with Zeke serving his suspension. Kamara and Alex Collins have been great for Majors this year.
Chaz needs a win this week to still have a hope of winning the Jack Daniels division. Unfortunately he is playing Hunter this week who is red hot after a big win over Basil last week. Hunter will look to get another win to try to secure his division and a bye week. Even more bad news for Chaz is that Pittsburgh has a pretty favorable matchup against Green Bay this week. That means points, points, and more points for Hunter. In addition, Hunter has beaten Chaz 4 out of the 6 times that they have played one another, including Hunter winning the past 3. In fact, Chaz has not beaten Hunter since week 12 of the 2013 season. Chaz will need Matt Ryan to continue to produce, which the Falcons were 6-4 at this point last year, so it can happen. In addition, he will be hoping that LeSean McCoy will continue to produce against a KC defense that has given up the 12th most fantasy points to RBs.
I am going to go with Hunter in this one, which will make it very difficult for Chaz to get into the playoffs. So far, when the Steelers win, which they should easily against a Rodgers-less Packers team, Hunter usually wins as well. Hunter is 5-2-1 when the Steelers have won.
Interestingly enough, if Sam and Ean both win, then the Pappy van Winkle division is all tied up at 6-6 going into the final week of the regular season. Whereas if Sawyer wins, he claims the division and a playoff spot. Honestly, I am rooting for Sawyer to lose just for the mere fact that he started off 6-0 and then will have followed that up going 0-6. What a downward spiral it has been for Sawyer this year. He will need Cam Cam to continue the hot streak he had right before his bye week. I think that the Panthers have finally figured out that Cam is best when he is having fun and he is having the most fun when he is running around people to set up play action passes to bunches of Funchess. Cam will also be hoping to get Greg Olsen back soon. Yet Brady has a very favorable matchup against a struggling Dolphins team that gave up 19.9 fantasy points to Ryan Fitz-magic. In addition, it appears that Dion Lewis is going to take over the James White pass catching role. But who knows, Belichick probably won't play Lewis at all this week because we are all expecting him to have a larger role.
I am going to go with Sam in this matchup. I think that the ageless Tom Brady will have a field day at home against Miami and plus I want to see everyone in this division be 6-6 going into the last week of the season.
The only playoff implication here is that Trevor will have to win to keep pace with Majors in the division and have a chance at a bye week. Otherwise Trevor has locked up at least a wildcard spot and Ross has already been eliminated. Ross still holds a slight upper hand on Trevor though, beating him 3 out of the 5 times they have played. Trevor had the best of Ross at the beginning of the season though so Ross will be looking for redemption. One interesting storyline in this matchup is that Ross has Devonta Freeman on his bench and Trevor has Tevin Coleman. Trevor will be hoping that Freeman sits out at least one more week so that Coleman can continue to get a majority of the workload. Prior to week 10, Coleman only had double digit carries in one week but in the past two weeks he has had 20 carries each week. Ross should have another high scoring game this week with Russell Wilson squaring off against the 49ers this week, whom have given up the 6th most points to QBs.
I am going to have to go with Trevor again this week. His squad just looks too strong at this point. I am still waiting for the game where Gronk tweaks his back though.
Basil has got to be awfully bitter about how his season has turned out so far. That loss last week really hurt and he has not had much help with real football either. Penn State has, well how do I put this, choked.
"We want Bama!" pic.twitter.com/nuWyJiZX7p
— Onward State (@OnwardState) October 22, 2017
I don't think that you really wanted Bama, you just wanted to want Bama.
Well I was wondering how long it would take for Basil to go back to hating Texas and here we are. Glad to have you back Basil. Well it is Basil and Jared going at it for the second time this year. Basil needs a win here to have a shot at the wildcard spot and will need some help from Jared next week in order to capture the division. Basil is currently riding a 2 game winning streak over Jared and has won 4 out 7 games against Jared. Will Jared be able to tie up the series against Basil and dash his playoff hopes? I am not so sure, Carson Wentz and Philly should be able to handle "Da Bears" pretty easily and Thielen should get plenty of looks with Darius Slay shadowing Stefon Diggs. Jared will need a big bounce back game from Dak and he will need another big performance from Rishard Matthews if he wants to stand a chance.
I do think that Dak will have a nice bounce back game on Thanksgiving day but I think that Basil will have another high scoring week. Gimme Basil in this one, keeping the wildcard and the division race close.