Week 10 is here and man is this going to be an interesting final stretch to the playoffs. There are only two teams in my mind that are out of the playoffs, sorry Jared and Ross better luck next year. This week will definitely help to shake some things up with 1 vs. 2, 3 vs. 4, and 5 vs. 6. Not to mention that this is the last week before we begin the division matchups again. I am really excited to see how things will shake out because I think that the division matchups will be very interesting. For example, who the hell is going to win the Jack Daniels division? Can Sam and Ean both beat Sawyer to catch up with him? The two teams with the most sure fire paths to the playoffs are Majors and Trevor, but who will win the division and who will end up with a wildcard spot?
So as I assume all of you expect, your points for causes your expected wins to increase, but I have also noticed that there are some times where that is not always the case. For example, take a look at 2015, Jared, Ross, and Trevor had an expected win total of 7.45 wins and each of them played 15 games. Yet, Ross averaged a 3 more points per game than Jared and close to 4 more points than Trevor. So this got me to thinking what all of these would look like on a scatter plot. In addition I wondered how your points against per game might affect your expected wins. Obviously, the less points against then the easier schedule you have and therefore you should expect more wins, right? Well here you go, it includes every year dating back to 2011 but does not include this year because we have not played a full year yet.
So as you can see, the more points you score, the better your expected wins and the better your season. Interestingly enough, your points against seems to have very little impact, if any, on your expected wins. But what about your actual wins and losses over the course of a season?
In conclusion, if you want to win then you better score.
#5 vs #6, the wildcard matchup. Currently riding a nice 3 game win streak against Trevor, I am confident that it will continue. No, I do not have a QB on my roster yet, but I have a plan for that. Trevor is hoping that Fournette doesn't miss anymore team photos because it hurts when one of your best players is out 3 weeks in a row, one of those being a bye week. So far out of the 6 games that Trevor and I have played, I have taken 4 of them. In addition, only twice has either one of us failed to post more than 80 points against the other. I will need my runningbacks to have another great week if I want this to continue because it really hurts Hopkins value playing with Tom Savage. Trevor snagged up Kenyan Drake and Kelvin Benjamin from Ean last week and will be hoping that Benjamin is able to learn the offense quickly and develop a connection with T-Mobile. I like my chances against Trevor this week, so I am going to pick myself.
#1 vs #2, can Sawyer regain his luck? Not sure that this is the week where Sawyer will end his 3 game losing streak. Not to mention his 4 game losing streak against Majors. These two have played each other 8 times and Majors has taken 6 of them. The last time that Sawyer beat Majors was week 3 of 2014 where he narrowly edged him out 90.6-88.46. Sawyer will be happy to get all his studs back from their bye week last week and he will be glad that the Elliot's rollercoaster of a legal battle has ended (maybe). Otherwise he wouldn't stand a chance. Majors runningback game is too strong this year. Anybody else remember Majors' bitching about his team and his lack of depth? Well it will really be put to the test with Elliot sitting out during the playoffs. One game of note in this matchup was in week 13 of 2015, Majors had the highest score of 2015 and the 5th biggest blowout beating Sawyer 150.66-86.24. I am going to have to go with Majors this week, he looks too good this year to pick against, meaning that Majors will have a 5 game winning streak against Sawyer.
#3 vs #4, surprisingly, Willis and Hunter have only played 6 times before. In those Hunter took the first 4 but Willis has taken the past couple. Tough week for Willis with his two best runningbacks on their bye week but I think that Jared Goff should have another great game against an injury plagued Houston Texans team. Although relying on Derrick Henry and Thomas Rawls is a pretty risky play. Last year this game was an absolute nail biter with Willis pulling out a victory by the second smallest margin of victory last yer. It was also the second worst game last year with them combining to score 136.6 points. I have a feeling that Hunter is going to blowout Willis this week with the Steelers back and playing at the pitiful Indianapolis Colts.
Wow, Jared and Chaz have only gone against each other twice. Both of those games were in 2014, and each have won one. Both of those were relatively close games with the margin of victory being 9.38 and 9.58 points. I am going to have to take Chaz this week because he team looks to be ok this week. The same cannot be said for Jared. He is having to roll out Jacquizz Rodgers and Cole Beasley. Ouch. You never know though, Dak might find Beasley for a couple touchdowns again. If Chaz loses this game it will be a miracle and I should never doubt Jared's lineup decisions again but again I think Chaz will enjoy the Jared bye week.
In the past this has been a very welcome game to Sam, winning 5 of 6 games. Last year, Ross was finally able to conquer Sam and he did so quite easily, 132.22-71.64 the 4th biggest blowout last year. This year it should be a little closer, with both teams having a bunch of underachievers this year. You know that you might have some issues when your kicker is the second or third highest projected player on your team. That or you just have a really awesome kicker. Sam will definitely need this win if he wants to hope to make the playoffs and I think that his hopes won't be crushed this week. Gimme Samboy.
I am in the boat that the tie is going to come back bite Basil in the ass. Basil I think that it might be time to go back to hating Texas. The good news is that you play Ean this week, the bad news is that Ean has a decent team this year. In the past though, Basil has beaten Ean 3 out of 4 times. I have a sneaky suspicion that Basil will somehow work his magic and pull out a victory. I really don't know how yet but I wouldn't be surprised if Big Ben has a big week against the Colts and I think Darkwa might run wild against the 49ers. Sorry Ean, but give me Basil, making that a 3 game win streak against Ean.
P.S. I have updated most of the years stats to include some more information like the high scores, low scores, etc.